Probability and gambling

[noodelss]

If understanding probability was enough to beat the casino, mathematicians would be the richest people alive. They're not.

 

[DavidSlots]

Because the casino is on the right side of the probability. Knowing the math just confirms you shouldn't play

 

[sebastian49]

Understanding odds and being able to exploit them are completely different things. The house edge exists precisely because no amount of mathematical knowledge changes the outcome of a random event. Kelly criterion gets thrown around a lot but that's bankroll management not a winning strategy

 

[blackjackProX]

Some of them are. Card counters in blackjack made serious money until casinos started banning them. The games where skill actually matters are the ones casinos watch most carefully

 

[noah_spin]

they are though. just not from gambling from building the games

 

[spinningLegend]

The question kind of proves the point. Everyone thinks they're the exception. Mathematicians know they're not so they don't bother

 

[isaac_spin]

Poker is an interesting case here because the house doesn't actually play against you. They just take a rake and let everyone else lose to each other. Different math entirely

 

[WillCasino]

Survivorship bias is doing a lot of heavy lifting in how people think about gambling wins. You hear about the big payout not about the ten thousand people who quietly lost the same amount

 

[michael87]

They're smart enough not to gamble

 

[liam18]

The probability of winning exists. The probability of winning enough to matter before you run out of money is a completely different calculation and that one is brutal

 

[olivia34]

Every person who claims they have a system has also had a losing streak they don't talk about. Pattern recognition in random systems is just how you trick yourself into feeling in control

 

[freeSpinFanatic]

Slots and roulette aren't really about probability the way people mean it. There's no edge to find. Blackjack and poker are different conversations

 

[julian_spin]

a guy called Ed Thorp literally wrote the book on card counting and then went and built one of the most successful hedge funds in history. so some of them figured it out just not at the casino table

 

[JackSlots]

The people asking this question are usually the ones looking for permission to believe they can beat it. The math doesn't give them that so they move on

 

[wyatt31]

I used to think understanding variance would help me handle losses better. It does not

 

[TheodoreSlots]

Nobody talks about the fact that casinos hire mathematicians specifically to make sure you can't win consistently. The expertise is already in the room it's just not on your side